Myth: You Can Tell Who Will Die by Suicide by Their Appearance
It would be ideal to be able to identify who is going to attempt and die by suicide by their appearance, but it’s not currently possible.
Fact: Even Sophisticated Models Have Low Predictive Capacity
Even Edward Shneidman couldn’t reliably predict suicide based on appearance. In cases he was familiar with and those he had relationships with, he was good – but never approaching certainty. The problem is that, even more broadly than appearance, the best models we have currently aren’t good at prediction.
Learn More
Coming soon.
Evidence
There are no high-reliability predictors of short-term suicide.
In Support of the Myth
None identified.
To Refute the Myth
"Prediction Models for Suicide Attempts and Deaths: A Systematic Review and Simulation" (2019)
“To date, suicide prediction models produce accurate overall classification models, but their accuracy of predicting a future event is near 0.”
“This (and other) suicide prediction models use a wide outcome window, which means they do not necessarily distinguish between someone who is at imminent risk for suicide and someone whose suicide attempt may occur months after the point of prediction.”
“Participating health systems now recommend completion of a structured suicide risk assessment following any response of “more than half the days” or “nearly every day” to PHQ9 item 9 – implying a 90-day risk of suicide attempt of 2–3%.” (PHQ-9 Question 9 is, “Thoughts that you would be better off dead, or of hurting yourself.”)
Unclear or Mixed Support
None identified.
Learn more about suicide myths – and the truths behind them – by following the links below.